Friday, August 6, 2010

Fundamental Perspective

The market expects that a U.S. report will reveal today, that the number of U.S. lost jobs increased for a second month. Yesterday, a report showed that initial jobless claims rose 19,000 to 479,000 in the week ended in the past month, which is the most since April. This could set the Federal Reserve under pressure to take extra steps to keep borrowing costs low. On top of that Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz criticized that the U.S. economic recovery is “anemic” and demanded for a “better-designed” stimulus package. As a result of that the USD is close to a weekly decrease versus 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts. The JPY traded near to an eight-month high against the USD and was at 85.85. Economists prognosticated that a German report will indicate industrial production rose for a fourth month. Even European Central Bank President Trichet is astonished about the fast recovery in Europe. Trichet said that the interest rate is appropriate and will therefore stay at a record low at 1 percent. Based on that the EUR was close to a three month high against the USD and traded at 1.3182. The EUR/USD already gained 11 percent after it had reached a 4 year low in June.

Australia’s currency was close to a three month high versus the USD. The AUD/USD climbed 1.2 percent this week and traded at 0.9150. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release today its quarterly statement on monetary policy whereat the economists do not expect any changes in central bank’s growth and inflation prognoses. New Zealand’s currency is close to a second weekly los versus the JPY. The NZD/JPY was at 62.66 and the NZD/USD traded at 0.7299.

Based on speculations that a report today will show that jobs were added in July for a seventh straight month, Canada’s currency strengthened to a two-month high versus the USD. The USD/CAD already fell 2.6 percent since July 20th and traded at 1.0108.

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