USD Sees Gains Against Most Majors

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar gained against most of the majors before the FOMC statement and trimmed part of the profits after the Interest Rate Decision which came out unchanged at 0.25% as expected. The FED said that the pace of economic recovery is slower than expected. The Stock Markets in the U.S. finished negative with the Dow Jones losing 0.51% and the NASDAQ tumbling by -1.24%. Crude Oil fell by 1.5% to $80.20 a barrel. Gold (XAU) closed with a small gain after falling to $1190 zone but recovered and closed at $1203 an ounce. Today, the Trade Balance is expected at -42.5B vs. -42.3B previously. The Federal Budget Balance (Treasury Budget) is expected at -167.6B vs. -68.4B previously.

EURO (EUR) – The Euro weakened against the dollar in Forex Trading, breaking the 1.31 zone but jumped back to 1.32 zones after the FED in U.S announced a continuation of measures to stop the economic slowdown. As the Asian markets opened it dragged back the Euro to 1.31 areas. The German CPI came out 0.3% better than the expected 0.25%. Trading below the support level of 1.3130 keeps the momentum negative for the pair. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3073 and with a high of 1.3232. No economic data is expected today. EUR/USD – Last: 1.3122

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound lost gains to the dollar reaching the 1.57 zone but jumped back to 1.59 zones after the FED interest rate decision. As the Asian markets opened, it dragged back the Sterling to 1.58 areas. The Trade Balance came out -7.4B better than the expected -7.7B. Nationwide Consumer Confidence came out at 56, worse than the expected 60. Trading below the support level of 1.5830 keeps the momentum negative for the pair. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5708 and with a high of 1.5906. Today, the Claimant Count Change is expected at -17.4k vs. -20.8k previously and later BoE Gov King will speak regarding the Inflation Report. GBP/USD - Last: 1.5811

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen gained versus the dollar and back to 85 zones. The global recovery slowing boosted demand for the safety of Japan’s currency. The Interest Rate Decision came out as expected at 0.1%. Breaking the support level of 85.30 turns the momentum to negative for the pair. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 85.16 and with a high of 86.24. Today, Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments will be updated. USD/JPY-Last: 85.33

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The US Dollar gained versus the Canadian dollar as the Federal Reserve said it will take new measures for economic growth in the U.S. The Housing Starts came out 189k better than the expected 185k. Holding above the support level of 1.03 keeps the momentum positive for the pair. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0265 and with a high of 1.0387. Today, the Trade Balance is expected 0.4B vs. -0.5B previously. USD/CAD - Last: 1.0319

The Brief Daily Forecaster

This pair has the knack of doing what is least expected when in a consolidation phase. Therefore, until the 1.0394 high is broken I would prefer to remain neutral. However, to retain a bullish outlook I do feel the 1.0330-43 area is important. While it holds there remains the risk that we could see direct follow-through above 1.0394 which would extend gains to the1.0441-61 area followed by a correction and final move to the 1.0494-02 resistance. Also note 1.0527 and the 1.0585 high.

If this actually breaks below 1.0330 it will raise the risk of follow-through lower again. However, I'd still prefer a break of the 1.0298 low that would provide the catalyst for a decline to the 1.0255 low and probably beyond to the 1.0200-20 area for a correction before the final move to the 1.0134-43 target.

Medium Term Outlook

29th July:

The erratic and whippy price development continues. Either we'll see a move down to the 1.0138 area before a recovery or the rally will resume directly above 1.0394 to 1.0470-90 initially but then to 1.0585-06 en route the 1.0851 high. Both are forms of triangle, the first symmetrical and the second ascending...

.

Below 1.0130 would target the 0.9929 low... above 1.0851 is required to break the weekly consolidation.