EUR/USD
The pair is still consolidating its higher levels in the European morning, currently trading quietly back a little at 1.2890. We do not expect much trading activity today but see a selling tone coming up, leading to market levels around 1.2820.
GBP/USD
A sudden sell off in the present European morning brought cable to levels 100 pips lower to now 1.5385. We reckon with a consolidation phase now, with not much more downside risk, and see a trading band between 1.5360 and 1.5420.
USD/CHF
Acting only a little stronger against the Swiss franc, the dollar is currently priced at 1.0147. We do not expect much action in this market today and cannot see any specific direction for now.
USD/JPY
Again the dollar was weaker against the yen at the start of the week in Asian trading today and is now about to find a support near 84.00 in the European morning hours. Currently at 84.20, we anticipate some recovery for today, but not above 84.45.
Showing posts with label Trading Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trading Strategy. Show all posts
Monday, September 6, 2010
Friday, August 13, 2010
EURUSD Trading Strategy
Trading strategy: small short at 1.3030, stop at 1.3090 (0.5% risk), objective at 1.2930
The euro found support at 1.2800 after the free fall from 1.3300 but the ongoing recovery is not convincing. Former support at 1.3000 will probably provide resistance if the euro continues to climb from here, and a daily close above 1.3000 should be a decent confirmation of uptrend resumption on short-term basis. Technically the uptrend is intact, despite the 500 points decline. Today’s most notable events in the economic calendar are the German GDP which came at 2.20% vs 1.30% expected, followed by the U.S. Retail Sales and CPI later today. Current quote is 1.2892 @06:07 GMT
Support: 1.2800/30, 1.2730, 1.2600 and 1.2500
Resistance: 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100 and 1.3250
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – slightly bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish
Monday, August 9, 2010
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR/USD
Starting the week in very low volatility during all of Asian trading hours today, the pair continues to consolidate its higher levels in the European morning and is currently at 1.3265. We do not expect much activity today but a slight bidding tone, bringing the market up to levels around 1.3325.
GBP/USD
Cable is trading right now at the lower end of its trading band in the European morning, at 1.5950. We see the downside risk limited at 1.5925 for today, from where some recovery moves could set in, up to 1.5985.
USD/CHF
The slighty stronger dollar this European morning is currently trading at 1.0402 against the Swiss franc. We see this market losing some minor ground today, to the 1.0345 mark.
USD/JPY
The dollar gained a little territory against the yen in thin Asian market hours today, priced right now at 85.60 in early European trading. We expect down moves, to levels around 85.30.
Starting the week in very low volatility during all of Asian trading hours today, the pair continues to consolidate its higher levels in the European morning and is currently at 1.3265. We do not expect much activity today but a slight bidding tone, bringing the market up to levels around 1.3325.
GBP/USD
Cable is trading right now at the lower end of its trading band in the European morning, at 1.5950. We see the downside risk limited at 1.5925 for today, from where some recovery moves could set in, up to 1.5985.
USD/CHF
The slighty stronger dollar this European morning is currently trading at 1.0402 against the Swiss franc. We see this market losing some minor ground today, to the 1.0345 mark.
USD/JPY
The dollar gained a little territory against the yen in thin Asian market hours today, priced right now at 85.60 in early European trading. We expect down moves, to levels around 85.30.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Index Recommended Levels
Dow Jones :
Resistance(daily close) : 9382.12, 9744.26, 10 091.30, 10 935.23, 11 164.57, 344.92 and 11 520.30. Then 11 749.22, 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00. Break of the latter will lead to 13 567.60, 13 668.74 and 13 792.53 (published on October 21, 2008).
Support (daily close): 9630.33 and 9358.35(main), 9090.00, 8912.62 (published on November 10, 2009).
Today’s support: - 10620.18, 10608.14 and 10573.32(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10528.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 10485.00. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10445.63. Continuation will bring 10417.50 and 10378.13.
Today’s resistance: - 10682.86 and 10707.38(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10726.87, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10753.22, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 10787.76. Continuation would bring 10802.82.
S&P500
Support: - 1113.63 and 1102.50( main). Break will give 1093.64, where correction could be. Then follows 1080.00, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1063.13. Continuation will lead to 1058.68.
Resistance: - 1128.23(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1138.08, where correction may also be. Then 1147.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1153.12. Continuation will lead to 1157.47.
NASDAQ
Support : - 2280.10 and 2271.50(main). Break will give 2263.33, where correction could be. Then 2238.80, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 2226.50. Continuation will lead to 2217.30.
Resistance : - 2300.52(main), where the correction could be. Break will bring 2314.68, where the correction may also happen. Then 2325.45. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 2340.09. Continuation will lead to 2354.14.
GOLD
Support: - 1187.41 and 1180.22(main). Break of the latter will give 1167.30, where a correction is possible. Then 1158.80, where a correction is also possible. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1152.12. Continuation will bring 1144.46.
Resistance: - 11203.80(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 1209.20, where a correction may also happen. Then follows 1215.00. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 1220.35. Continuation would bring 1226.24.
Resistance(daily close) : 9382.12, 9744.26, 10 091.30, 10 935.23, 11 164.57, 344.92 and 11 520.30. Then 11 749.22, 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00. Break of the latter will lead to 13 567.60, 13 668.74 and 13 792.53 (published on October 21, 2008).
Support (daily close): 9630.33 and 9358.35(main), 9090.00, 8912.62 (published on November 10, 2009).
Today’s support: - 10620.18, 10608.14 and 10573.32(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10528.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 10485.00. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10445.63. Continuation will bring 10417.50 and 10378.13.
Today’s resistance: - 10682.86 and 10707.38(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10726.87, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10753.22, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 10787.76. Continuation would bring 10802.82.
S&P500
Support: - 1113.63 and 1102.50( main). Break will give 1093.64, where correction could be. Then follows 1080.00, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1063.13. Continuation will lead to 1058.68.
Resistance: - 1128.23(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1138.08, where correction may also be. Then 1147.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1153.12. Continuation will lead to 1157.47.
NASDAQ
Support : - 2280.10 and 2271.50(main). Break will give 2263.33, where correction could be. Then 2238.80, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 2226.50. Continuation will lead to 2217.30.
Resistance : - 2300.52(main), where the correction could be. Break will bring 2314.68, where the correction may also happen. Then 2325.45. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 2340.09. Continuation will lead to 2354.14.
GOLD
Support: - 1187.41 and 1180.22(main). Break of the latter will give 1167.30, where a correction is possible. Then 1158.80, where a correction is also possible. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1152.12. Continuation will bring 1144.46.
Resistance: - 11203.80(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 1209.20, where a correction may also happen. Then follows 1215.00. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 1220.35. Continuation would bring 1226.24.
SILVER
Support: - 18.17 and 17.96(main).where correction is possible. Break of the latter would give 17.82, where correction may happen. Then goes 17.73, where correction can also be. If a strong impulse, we would see 17.55. Continuation would give 17.30 and 17.19.
Resistance : - 18.40, 18.63 and 18.71(main), where correction is possible. Break will lead 18.81, where again may be a correction. Then follows 18.97. If a strong impulse, we would have 19.16. Continuation would give 19.35.
Daily Outlook
I was always a little nervous of the bullish call with the expectation for a general reversal high in the U.S. Dollar. Yesterday's failure to extend gains and slip lower through what appears to be a support line from the 0.8904 is threatening a deeper reversal lower. A break of yesterday's 0.9115 low would increase that pressure and below the 0.9094 low then confirm follow-through to 0.9053-70. Take care as this could cause a reaction but overall I feel the downside should then extend to the 0.8966-89 area at least. Expect a correction there before the next leg lower to retest the 0.8904 low...
If instead this manages to break back above the 0.9182 high then I'll have to rethink the situation. Assuming this comes with general U.S. Dollar losses it would tend to resurrect the bullish structure for a rally through 0.9233 and to 0.9270 minimum - more likely the 0.9301-27 resistance before a correction. After that is over we should well see a test of the 0.9390-16 area - where the weekly corrective highs rest...
Medium Term Outlook6th August:
Much depends on today I think - if this does break lower as I am now beginning to suspect then the 0.8966-89 and 0.8904 areas are the next major supports with the lower level quite likely to cause a correction. There's also support at the 0.8850 pivot area.
.
If the 0.9182 high breaks it will swing things back in favor of the rally for 0.9270 & 0.9301-27 en route the 0.9390-16 area which should pause the move.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Index Recommended Levels
Dow Jones :
Resistance(daily close) : 9382.12, 9744.26, 10 091.30, 10 935.23, 11 164.57, 344.92 and 11 520.30. Then 11 749.22, 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00. Break of the latter will lead to 13 567.60, 13 668.74 and 13 792.53 (published on October 21, 2008).
Support (daily close): 9630.33 and 9358.35(main), 9090.00, 8912.62 (published on November 10, 2009).
Today’s support: - 10608.14 and 10573.32(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10528.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 10485.00. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10445.63. Continuation will bring 10417.50 and 10378.13.
Today’s resistance: - 10682.86 and 10707.38(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10726.87, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10753.22, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 10787.76. Continuation would bring 10802.82.
S&P500
Support: - 1102.50, 1093.64, 1080.00 and 1063.13( main). Break will give 1058.68, where correction could be. Then follows 1051.90, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1047.22. Continuation will lead to 1038.63.
Resistance: - 1128.23(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1138.08, where correction may also be. Then 1147.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1153.12. Continuation will lead to 1157.47.
NASDAQ
Support : - 2271.50, 2263.33, 2238.80 and 2226.50(main). Break will give 2217.30, where correction could be. Then 2210.62, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 2205.18. Continuation will lead to 2194.36.
Resistance : - 2295.00(main), where the correction could be. Break will bring 2314.68, where the correction may also happen. Then 2325.45. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 2340.09. Continuation will lead to 2354.14.
GOLD
Support: - 1167.30, 1558.80 and 1152.12(main). Break of the latter will give 1144.46, where a correction is possible. Then 1137.25, where a correction is also possible. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1131.70. Continuation will bring 1126.41.
Resistance: - 1192.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 1198.13, where a correction may also happen. Then follows 1203.80. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 1215.00. Continuation would bring 122263.
SILVER
Support: - 18.17 and 17.96(main).where correction is possible. Break of the latter would give 17.82, where correction may happen. Then goes 17.73, where correction can also be. If a strong impulse, we would see 17.55. Continuation would give 17.30 and 17.19.
Resistance : - 18.54 and 18.63(main), where correction is possible. Break will lead 18.81, where again may be a correction. Then follows 18.97. If a strong impulse, we would have 19.16. Continuation would give 19.35.
Resistance(daily close) : 9382.12, 9744.26, 10 091.30, 10 935.23, 11 164.57, 344.92 and 11 520.30. Then 11 749.22, 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00. Break of the latter will lead to 13 567.60, 13 668.74 and 13 792.53 (published on October 21, 2008).
Support (daily close): 9630.33 and 9358.35(main), 9090.00, 8912.62 (published on November 10, 2009).
Today’s support: - 10608.14 and 10573.32(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10528.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 10485.00. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10445.63. Continuation will bring 10417.50 and 10378.13.
Today’s resistance: - 10682.86 and 10707.38(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10726.87, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10753.22, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 10787.76. Continuation would bring 10802.82.
S&P500
Support: - 1102.50, 1093.64, 1080.00 and 1063.13( main). Break will give 1058.68, where correction could be. Then follows 1051.90, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1047.22. Continuation will lead to 1038.63.
Resistance: - 1128.23(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1138.08, where correction may also be. Then 1147.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1153.12. Continuation will lead to 1157.47.
NASDAQ
Support : - 2271.50, 2263.33, 2238.80 and 2226.50(main). Break will give 2217.30, where correction could be. Then 2210.62, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 2205.18. Continuation will lead to 2194.36.
Resistance : - 2295.00(main), where the correction could be. Break will bring 2314.68, where the correction may also happen. Then 2325.45. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 2340.09. Continuation will lead to 2354.14.
GOLD
Support: - 1167.30, 1558.80 and 1152.12(main). Break of the latter will give 1144.46, where a correction is possible. Then 1137.25, where a correction is also possible. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1131.70. Continuation will bring 1126.41.
Resistance: - 1192.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 1198.13, where a correction may also happen. Then follows 1203.80. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 1215.00. Continuation would bring 122263.
SILVER
Support: - 18.17 and 17.96(main).where correction is possible. Break of the latter would give 17.82, where correction may happen. Then goes 17.73, where correction can also be. If a strong impulse, we would see 17.55. Continuation would give 17.30 and 17.19.
Resistance : - 18.54 and 18.63(main), where correction is possible. Break will lead 18.81, where again may be a correction. Then follows 18.97. If a strong impulse, we would have 19.16. Continuation would give 19.35.
Forex: EUR/GBP rebound from 0.8266 stretches above 0.8300
The British currency was denied to move further down, after investors started to show more support towards the Hegemonic currency in the European trading session. The pair has presently recovered over 40 pips to the upside, jumping above 0.8300.
Earlier on, EUR/GBP was propelled to the downside, reaching an intra-day low at 0.8266, but far from reaching a fresh 1-month low at 0.8247 first touched on Monday. Over the last 2 hours, the course drifted north, driving the pair to 0.8310, as the Euro pared yesterday's losses.
Resistance is likely to be found at the following levels “0.8350/60~ * congestion, mid range, 0.8325 2 Aug high ahead of 0.8300 current 3 Aug high. Support may be taken at 0.8252 2 Aug low, 0.8242 * 61.8% Jul rally ahead of 0.8217 2 Jul low” commented the 4CAST analysis team.
Earlier on, EUR/GBP was propelled to the downside, reaching an intra-day low at 0.8266, but far from reaching a fresh 1-month low at 0.8247 first touched on Monday. Over the last 2 hours, the course drifted north, driving the pair to 0.8310, as the Euro pared yesterday's losses.
Resistance is likely to be found at the following levels “0.8350/60~ * congestion, mid range, 0.8325 2 Aug high ahead of 0.8300 current 3 Aug high. Support may be taken at 0.8252 2 Aug low, 0.8242 * 61.8% Jul rally ahead of 0.8217 2 Jul low” commented the 4CAST analysis team.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Forecast on Spot Gold , NZD/USD, USD/SGD
Spot Gold
SPOT GOLD closed @ 11685 which was ABOVE the open and breached the previous day's high. The High was 1.5 Dollars from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 0.5 Dollars from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 1. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the Price is Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Limited Down while 11775 holds and Daily Trend is also Limited Down while 12085 holds, so expect the price to have a Minimum Downside and the Bears have to be Cautious. The Daily Trend was within the Prior Day's Range and the Bulls gained mildly towards the Close . The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with a Limited Downside Bias,11735-775 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook .On the 5 min is along the Horizontal Channel and the Patterns are suggesting a Choppy Session with a potential to Turn Up Soon. The Opening Price Principles are Mixed , so Cautious approach is needed until the price breaks out of Zone 1 levels.
BULLS: 11580 11450 11360 BEARS: 11715 11805 11865
Today's Strategies: Trade @ the Bulls & Bears Levels Only.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD closed @ 7240 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 2. The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish but Weak and the Price is Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed for the Bears. Hourly Trend is Limited Down while 7295 holds and Daily Trend is Limited Up while 7105 holds, so expect the price to have a Minimum Downside and the Bears have to be Cautious. The Daily Trend breached the Prior Day's Low and the Bears gave up mildly towards the Close . The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with a Limited Downside Bias, 7280-95 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the Steep Down Channel and the Patterns are suggesting a Choppy Session until there is a Clear Break . The Opening Price Principles suggests that NZD is Weak against most Crosses but should be Limited so Cautious approach is needed.
BULLS: 7190 7135 7085 BEARS: 7265 7325 7365
Today's Strategies: Trade @ the Bulls & Bears Levels Only.
USDSGD
USDSGD closed @ 13635 which was BELOW the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 30 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 1. The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish but Weak and the Price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed for the Bears. Hourly Trend is Limited Down while 13725 holds and Daily Trend is also Limited Down while 13805 holds, so expect the price to have a Minimum Downside and the Bears have to be Cautious. The Daily Trend was within the Prior Day's Range but the Bears gained towards the Close . The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with a Limited Upside Bias, 13690-13725 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the Horizontal Channel and the Patterns are suggesting a Choppy Session until there is a Clear Break. The Opening Price Principles are Mixed , so Cautious approach is needed until the price breaks out of Zone 1 levels.
BULLS: 13590 13540 13480 BEARS: 13665 13705 13765
Today's Strategies: Trade @ the Bulls & Bears Levels Only.
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